编辑“︁Guesstimate”︁

{{NotChineseTitle|time=2019-01-19}}
'''Guesstimate'''是一個非正式的[[英文]][[混成詞]]，是由guess（猜測）和estimate（估計）結合而成，中文可以稱為'''猜估'''、猜測估算，最早是由美國[[統計學家]]在1934年<ref>[http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=guess ''guess''] {{Wayback|url=http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=guess |date=20170508222353 }} Online Etymological Dictionary</ref>或1935年開始使用<ref name=duna>[http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/guesstimate ''guesstimate''] {{Wayback|url=http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/guesstimate |date=20160305014632 }} Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)</ref>。Guesstimate是指在沒有適當資訊或是完全資訊下所作的[[估計]]<ref>[http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/guesstimate ''guesstimate''] {{Wayback|url=http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/guesstimate |date=20201112005809 }}Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary</ref><ref>[http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html ''guesstimate''] {{Wayback|url=http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html |date=20091212031415 }}MSN Encarta Dictionary. 2009-10-31.</ref>，甚至可以說是透過猜測或是猜想得到的估計<ref name=duna /><ref name=ahd>[http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html ''guesstimate''] {{Wayback|url=http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html |date=20080316182507 }} American Heritage Dictionary</ref><ref>Compact Oxford English Dictionary [http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/guesstimate?view=uk guesstimate] {{Wayback|url=http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/guesstimate?view=uk |date=20050204183933 }}</ref>。Guesstimate可以做名詞也可以做動詞，兩者[[讀音]]的變化類似estimate。Guesstimate可能是在還沒有更準確估計時的粗略近似，也可能是在沒有更好資訊情形下，一個有根據的猜測。

有時有助精確估測的資訊是可以取得的，但卻在忽略這些資訊的情形下進行估測，也會用guesstimate，不過此時就有[[貶義]]在內<ref>"Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of [[For Dummies|Statistics for Dummies]]</ref><ref>[http://www.thirteen.org/edonline/nttidb/lessons/sf/guesssf.html Guesstimate; Grades 4-6] {{Wayback|url=http://www.thirteen.org/edonline/nttidb/lessons/sf/guesssf.html |date=20200229001104 }} NTTI Lesson Plan</ref>。

以下是一些用到guesstimation技巧的部份：
*[[物理]]中會教授理科的學生用guesstimate的方式作為求解[[费米问题]]（例如在芝加哥有多少鋼琴調琴師）的好用工具<ref>[http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storyCode=402275&sectioncode=26 Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin] {{Wayback|url=http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storyCode=402275&sectioncode=26 |date=20120212222544 }}, Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement</ref>。
*在[[宇宙学]]中，[[德雷克公式]]是廣為人知的guesstimation方式<ref>[http://wearentalone.googlepages.com/drake.html The Drake Equation] {{Wayback|url=http://wearentalone.googlepages.com/drake.html |date=20090926212012 }} WeAreNotAlone.net</ref>。
*[[經濟學]]中，許多經濟的預測及統計都是以guesstimate為基礎<ref>[http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2003/10/13/editorial3.html Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation] {{Wayback|url=http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2003/10/13/editorial3.html |date=20160816154437 }}, M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal</ref>
*在[[軟體工程]]中，新機能開發及發佈的時間都是以任務需要[[人月]]的guesstimate來估算。

Lawrence Weinstein和John Adam在《Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin》中，以[[老道明大學]]《信封背後的物理》（Physics on the Back of an Envelope）課程為基礎，提倡guesstimation技巧作為有用的生活技能，其中包括以下guesstimation的例子：

*所有美國人一年開車共計多少英里？
::答案：約二兆英里（2x10<sup>12</sup>）<ref>Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1</ref>。
*若一年內生產一GW的核武，會產生多少的高階核子廢料？
::答案：約60噸<ref>Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5</ref>。

==參考資料==
{{reflist}}

==來源==
* {{cite book
  | last = Weinstein
  | first = Lawrence
  |author2=Adam, John A.
  | title = Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin 
  | url = https://archive.org/details/guesstimationsol0000wein
  | publisher = Princeton University Press
  | year = 2008
  | isbn = 978-0-691-12949-5 }}

==相關條目==
*[[擬設]]
*{{le|粗略计算|Back-of-the-envelope calculation}}
*{{le|SWAG|Scientific Wild-Ass Guess}}

[[Category:精準]]
[[Category:估计理论]]
[[Category:信息、知识与不确定性]]